2025 GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
01. Financing the future
Mega forces including AI are transforming economies. We see capital markets – especially private markets – playing a vital role in building this transformation.
02. Rethinking investing
This transformation raises questions about how to build portfolios for an ever-changing outlook. We think investors should focus on themes and put more weight on tactical views.
03. Staying pro-risk
We remain pro-risk and further upgrade U.S. stocks thanks to U.S. corporate strength. But we stay nimble. Key signposts for changing our views include any surge in long-term bond yields or an escalation in trade protectionism.
What 2024 says about 2025
Markets have been more sensitive to data surprises than in the past, with even long-term assets having outsized reactions. See the chart. That reinforces volatility. Yet 2024 underscored why trying to overlay a typical business cycle on incoming U.S. data can be misleading when structural forces are at play. Inflation eased, but growth remained strong, driven by structural forces like the post-pandemic normalization of the labor and goods markets and a rise in immigration.
Looking ahead to 2025, we see persistent inflation pressures fueled by rising geopolitical fragmentation, plus big spending on the AI buildout and the low-carbon transition. Slowing immigration may exacerbate the challenges of an aging workforce, keeping wage growth elevated. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to pursue aggressive rate cuts, with rates unlikely to fall much below 4%. Given persistent budget deficits, sticky inflation, and heightened volatility, we expect long-term Treasury yields to climb as investors demand higher compensation for risk.
2025 GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
01. Financing the future
Mega forces including AI are transforming economies. We see capital markets – especially private markets – playing a vital role in building this transformation.
02. Rethinking investing
This transformation raises questions about how to build portfolios for an ever-changing outlook. We think investors should focus on themes and put more weight on tactical views.
03. Staying pro-risk
We remain pro-risk and further upgrade U.S. stocks thanks to U.S. corporate strength. But we stay nimble. Key signposts for changing our views include any surge in long-term bond yields or an escalation in trade protectionism.
What 2024 says about 2025
Markets have been more sensitive to data surprises than in the past, with even long-term assets having outsized reactions. See the chart. That reinforces volatility. Yet 2024 underscored why trying to overlay a typical business cycle on incoming U.S. data can be misleading when structural forces are at play. Inflation eased, but growth remained strong, driven by structural forces like the post-pandemic normalization of the labor and goods markets and a rise in immigration.
Looking ahead to 2025, we see persistent inflation pressures fueled by rising geopolitical fragmentation, plus big spending on the AI buildout and the low-carbon transition. Slowing immigration may exacerbate the challenges of an aging workforce, keeping wage growth elevated. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to pursue aggressive rate cuts, with rates unlikely to fall much below 4%. Given persistent budget deficits, sticky inflation, and heightened volatility, we expect long-term Treasury yields to climb as investors demand higher compensation for risk.